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Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.

For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.

The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.

Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

It places particular emphasis on measures that refer to the total economy rather than to particular sectors.

The committee also maintains a quarterly chronology of business cycle peak and trough dates.

The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.

The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.

Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.

A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

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